Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Rock Band. Guitar Hero. Why They Are Doomed.

So I will begin this by saying I am an unashamed Rock Band fanboy. Playing expert guitar and drums (and, when I'm feeling brave, vocals) is now one of my favored ways to listen to music and relax at the end of the day. I'll be in line for Beatles Rock Band on day one. I've written about how wrong-headed criticisms of these games are and how they are a cool, new way to appreciate music. Playing fake plastic drums is probably the most fun I've had with a video game, ever. I am one of the music game dead-enders.

Which is why it pains me so much to be the turd in the punchbowl. The fad is dying. Fast.

We all know it. We've all seen the glut. (What? Eight rhythm games out this year? Yikes!) It's the sure sign of trying to cash in on the installed base as much as possible before the fall. Sales for new Guitar Hero titles are, well, not encouraging.

If there could have been any question, the offer of a free Guitar Hero: Van Halen with purchase of Guitar Hero 5, before either of those games is even out, is the clearest sign you could possibly want. (This deal actually tempted me a little, until I realized that taking it would put me at risk of listening to Van Halen.)

The Beatles game will goose the genre a little, but even new releases with serious, broad appeal (Led Zeppelin? Pink Floyd?) will only slow the decay.

But, here's the thing. It's easy to blame the glut for the death of the fad, but, even if music games had been released at a reasonable pace, the thing was doomed to collapse. It wasn't sustainable, ever. I think it's interesting to look at why.

i. The Magic Wore Off

Now, most of this is based on my own personal observations and thus should be taken with a grain of salt. But isn't the magic gone? When Rock Band was new, I and two other friends frequently threw Rock Band parties, and they were well attended. Getting four people to pick up the plastic instruments was easy. Two years later? Not so much. I stopped throwing Rock Band parties after my last one, when I looked around during one song and realized I was the only one left playing. Everyone else had migrated to the next room. It was pathetic.

There is a certain sort of brain that has a compelling, all-consuming urge to hit those little colored spots as they come down the track. I have such a brain. But for everyone else, well, let's face it. Pressing the red button to hit the red light and the green button to hit the green light does not compelling gameplay make. It was a kick to do it a few evenings. Now it's done. Even a game for the Casual Market (tm) has to have SOMETHING to it.

ii. It Is An Expensive Activity ...

$249 for the full Beatles: Rock Band set. Again, yikes.

Happily, in an effort to avoid flaming suicide, it was just announced that there will be cheaper bundles available. And yet, MSRP of $160 is still pretty darn spendy.

iii. ... and Not Just In Cash

I'm talking about cost in resources. And my liberal leanings are going to show a little in the next paragraph, so be warned.

It takes a lot of resources to make these bulky instruments (especially drums), pack them up, ship them over the sea, get them to you, and, from there, dump them in landfills. A lot of plastic and oil in our new oil-short, global-warming reality. And, if this recession should have taught us anything, it's that we're going too much in debt buying too much useless crap from the Chinese. Something has got to go. And I think shoddy plastic Fisher Price drum kits will be first in line.

And, perhaps most significantly, these games consume a lot of space in stores. You want to know when there will be serious blood on the walls in the music game business? It'll be when some executive at Best Buy looks at the enormous amount of precious floor space taken up by big, bulky Rock Band and Guitar Hero boxes, remembers the sloping sales, and says, "Enough."

What Is the Future?

Of course, music games will remain a profitable little niche in this huge industry. Nothing that generates as many sales as Guitar Hero 3 had can ever disappear. But how will it evolve in a sustainable form?

First, games with vocals will always do all right. Microphones are small and easy to make. People love singing drunken karaoke. SingStar fans have nothing to worry about.

Guitar games will always survive. Fake plastic guitars are relatively small, flat, and easy to pack. Stores will always have a small section with two or three brands of plastic geetar. Borderline Asperger's cases like me will always have little, bright lights to hit.

Which brings us to my beloved drums. Harmonix did an amazing job of creating a mode of gameplay which sits interestingly in the shadow zone between video games and real instruments. Fake plastic drums are awesome. But let's face it. They're big. They're bulky. They don't last long under heavy use. (No cheap plastic toy will withstand being hit with a stick thousands of times.) And they aren't popular. The current mode of fake drum playing is just too tricky for the casual types these games need to live.

The drums will have to go. And when they do, band games will have to go too. Music games will fragment into singing games (for the many who love that) and guitar games (which two people can play, instead of four). Rock Band, if it survives, will still provide drum charts for the installed base. But in a few years, when we go to the next generation of consoles? Forget it.

And, someday, we will look back on the Great Music Game Fad and remember the glut of titles and the mountains of instruments at Best Buy and the $299 video game controller and go, "Wow, what was that all about?" and laugh and laugh and laugh.

107 comments:

  1. My agreement is uncharacteristically wholehearted. I am, however, biased, not having the sort of brain enthused by music themed Simon Says. My own failing, I suppose.

    ReplyDelete
  2. When I first heard about Rock Band having a drum controller, I figured it would be too bulky and expensive to last (as I expect a real drum set is if you aren't serious about it, and maybe even if you are). I just wonder how long it will be before technology makes video game drumming more viable, and how it will do so.

    ReplyDelete
  3. My first thought was to post something like, "but... DLC!" until I remembered that new songs will rarely be enough to bring party guests back in from the other room. Good post.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stupid, expensive, controllers for video games are nothing new.

    Remember a little number called the Power Glove?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think you may have misspoken a bit. The era of buying expensive equipment with an extra drum or pedal is over, yes; However, it's the manufacturers killing themselves off, not the level of cannibalization in the market. What I mean by this is simple; by requiring users/players to purchase new hardware just to access the new content (read: songs), they are shooting themselves in the foot. The market for purchasing rockband songs online is still growing, and continues to grow as enhancements are constantly made to platform-specific content delivery engines (PSN).

    There is certainly something that gets old with playing Beastie Boys - Sabotage time after time again until the novelty wears off, however the approach to making money should be similar to Madden NFL's revenue model. Sure with a new release of madden brings *some* new features, but mostly the reason people are purchasing it is because of the content (new players/rosters).

    Rock Band needs to get away from releasing new, proprietary, costly equipment, and start moving more towards new content, delivered digitally.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Haha! Your "Rock Band Party" story is funny because a friend of mine kept throwing "Musician Parties" where a bunch of folks that play real instruments would go over and we'd jam out random stuff together. It was cool for a while, but eventually it didn't last 10 minutes until he was in the room by himself playing 'Freebird'. Again. While everyone else was off doing other stuff. Don't feel too bad Jeff!!

    It's interesting how you talk about the Drums going the way of the Dodo, because that actually mirrors the real music industry. There is a known, nationwide drummer shortage! I don't have any links, but a few years ago, there was actually an article about it in the Wall Street Journal! Everyone wants to be a guitarist or singer, and it's no surprise to me that drums would be the first to feel the crunch in band game. A minimum real drumset is a crapload more expensive than a minimal guitar rig. Hell, in a lot of circles, you don't even have to own a microphone to be able to call yourself a singer!

    I had a friend that was a sales rep for Ludwig Drums years back, and I thought that drums sales had to be terrible considering circumstances, but he said Nay! Drum companies actually sell boatloads of drumsets, but they sell most of them to folks with careers in their later 30s or 40s that have no interest in actually playing in a band, they just want to beat the crap out of studff in their basement! I was shocked, but I guess he was the expert. Maybe that's why you like Rock Band drums so much! Same effect costing far less money and making far less racket?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I think the technology will continue to evolve, although the game may change faces and become less casual. I can imagine a keyboard instrument in the near future, and a guitar that is more realistic (say, with strings).

    Think of that - a guitar game that, when played, actually makes you better at guitar!

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Technomancer

    Clearly then, the solution to the lack of a drummer in one's band is best solved by approaching as many middle aged salary men as possible!

    Actually, just five of those guys all drumming would be an amazing band.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The handheld versions will always remain cheap and easy to produce.

    ReplyDelete
  10. @Technomancer: That story made me laugh.

    "It's interesting how you talk about the Drums going the way of the Dodo, because that actually mirrors the real music industry. There is a known, nationwide drummer shortage! "

    The main effect Rock Band has had on me personally is a deep and surprising regret that I didn't learn to play the drums when I was young.

    - Jeff Vogel

    ReplyDelete
  11. Or guitar, for that matter.

    Great article, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I'm not sure I totally follow the logic here. $240 for the Beatles game doesn't sound sustainable -- sure -- but if you already have the fake instruments, you can get the game alone for under $60. And plenty of people do already have the instruments.

    The bit about Van Halen made me laugh. Especially since I went through a similar thought process. And yet, any game that would consider me getting Van Halen for the music has got to have something very powerful going for it.

    My guess is that these games have only scratched the surface. They'll improve in breadth (more songs) and depth (more creative aspects added, so you're not merely a parrot). The bottom line is that music is meaningful to many of us and there is a huge market here.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @Thomas: Like I said though, they don't really have any interest in being in a band, even part time. Alien thinking to me, but to each their own. The real solution is drum programming. Just need to somehow make it cool to play on stage with a laptop instead of a drummer.

    @Jeff: It's never too late man! Wanna join my band? lol!

    I think everyone should learn an instrument, at least for just private enjoyment, but I'm biased.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Jeff, you're borderline Aspie? Neat! Me too. Rock on and prosper.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I'm upset of the lack of DDR mentions in your music game posts. :(

    ReplyDelete
  16. There will surely be more services like http://www.karaokeparty.com in the future, especially when the computer moves into the tv.

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  17. The cool thing is, I'm just now getting into it.

    I guess that means lots of cheap used copies for me! It's so awesome being behind the times in situations like this.

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  18. I disagree that the drums are not popular round here thats the main instrument. Im not bothered about the guitar at all. the new games should just be downloaded content maybe.

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